Retail sales figures reported by Census Bureau of the U.S. Department seem on growth rates of online sales and offline sales were not exactly misleading but rather incomplete. The Census Bureau reports that online sales reached $34.6 billion, on a seasonally adjusted basis, in the second quarter of 2008, up 6.3% from $33.6 billion in Q2 a year ago. Total retail sales in second quarter were $1.034 trillion in 2008, up 2.19% from $1.012 trillion in 2007. Taking into account this measure, online sales grew at about four times the rate of offline sales.
But the gap in growth between online and offline sales seems to widen further when gasoline and food sales are subtracted from the Commerce Department numbers, analysts note. Prices have been going up rapidly for gasoline and food, and gas is never bought online and food only rarely, so those price increases result in higher offline sales.
According to Gian Fulgoni, chairman of web measurement firm comScore Inc. “Inflation is holding up that offline retail number since Inflation is occurring in categories not bought online, namely food and gas.”
An analysis of retail spending minus food and gasoline shows first half growth in total retail sales of 0.35%. If fuel sales, which represent home heating purchases and also are unlikely to occur online, are further subtracted from the Commerce Department numbers, retail growth was an almost non-existent 0.06%.
Meanwhile, e-commerce sales were up 11.2% in the first half of the 2008, to $68.25 billion from $61.35 billion a year earlier. By that measure, online sales are growing far more rapidly than offline. In fact, growth in total retail sales minus food and gasoline was $6.25 billion in the first half, while growth in online sales was $6.90 billion.
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